Weekly Wrap Up: Sunday 11/9/2025

Fugazi Research's report triggered an immediate and catastrophic collapse in Davis Commodities, with the stock plunging 79.19% to $1.33 at its intraday low before settling at $1.41 for a 77.93% decline on the day of publication. The stock remained at these severely depressed levels through week's end, indicating the market found the allegations highly credible and material. This represents one of the most dramatic single-day collapses in response to activist short research in 2025, suggesting fundamental concerns about the company's viability and the possibility of a complete re-rating or delisting scenario.

Davis Commodities Ltd. is a Singapore-headquartered agricultural commodity trading company that listed on NASDAQ in 2023. The company operates across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, trading sugar, rice, and oils. Davis Commodities is family-controlled with a single family controlling 70-75% of voting power, and the business maintains extremely thin margins (under 2%) with negative cash flow and less than $1 million in bank reserves according to the report.

• Fugazi alleges Davis Commodities is using family control, circular financing, and narrative engineering to maintain an illusion of growth while fundamentals collapse
• The company has pivoted from exporter to ESG tokenization to consumer goods, with each transition masking deteriorating margins, negative cash flow, and suspicious related-party transactions
• Under 2% margins, negative cash flow, and less than $1M in bank reserves suggest acute financial stress and potential going-concern issues
• Extensive related-party transactions with family-controlled entities raise governance red flags and questions about whether revenues and profits are real
• Fugazi concludes this isn't a company scaling a legitimate business—it's maintaining an illusion designed for capital-markets extraction

Grizzly Research's report on HelloFresh generated a substantial market reaction, with the stock dropping 13.54% to €5.49 at its intraday low on the day of publication before recovering somewhat to close at €5.96, down 6.14%. By week's end, the stock settled at €5.74, representing a 9.61% decline from pre-report levels. The sustained weakness through week's end suggests the market is digesting structural concerns about the meal kit delivery model and HelloFresh's competitive positioning, though the partial recovery from intraday lows indicates some investors view the selloff as creating value.

HelloFresh SE is a Berlin-based meal kit delivery company that operates globally, providing pre-portioned ingredients and recipes to customers who cook at home. The company expanded rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic as consumers sought convenient home cooking solutions, but has faced increasing challenges as dining habits normalize and competition intensifies in the meal kit and food delivery space. HelloFresh trades on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and has been working to improve unit economics and customer retention metrics.

• Grizzly highlights unsustainable customer acquisition costs that exceed customer lifetime value in many markets, creating a structural profitability challenge
• High churn rates and declining repeat purchase behavior suggest the meal kit model faces fundamental engagement problems as the novelty wears off
• HelloFresh's pandemic-era growth was an anomaly, and the company is reverting to a structurally challenged business model as consumers return to restaurants
• Intensifying competition from both meal kit competitors and broader food delivery platforms is compressing margins and making customer acquisition more expensive
• Despite operational challenges, Grizzly argues HelloFresh remains overvalued relative to its sustainable earnings power and growth trajectory

Jehoshaphat Research's fraud allegations against AAON generated initial selling pressure, with the stock falling 3.63% to $94.82 at its intraday low and closing down 2.53% at $95.90 on the day of publication. However, the stock staged a dramatic reversal through the remainder of the week, climbing to $105.53 for a 7.26% gain from pre-report levels. This positive weekly performance suggests the market either disagreed with the fraud allegations, viewed them as immaterial, or believes AAON's data center exposure and growth narrative outweigh accounting concerns. The reversal is notable given the serious nature of the allegations and may indicate strong institutional support or favorable sector dynamics overwhelming the thesis.

AAON, Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed manufacturer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The company has positioned itself to capitalize on the data center buildout boom through its BASX subsidiary, which produces cooling solutions for high-density computing environments. AAON has been highlighted by investors as a pure-play beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending, with the data center segment representing a key growth driver. The company has seen significant stock appreciation based on the data center thesis, though traditional HVAC products remain part of the business.

• Jehoshaphat alleges AAON is treating inventory purchases as revenues, maintaining contract asset DSOs of 192 days versus peers at less than 20 days, and recognizing $2.80 of revenue for every $1.00 actually billed
• The report claims BASX revenues are overstated by 30-40% (approximately $103 million), with a near-term revenue shortfall inevitable as accounting games unwind
• Liquid cooling products driving growth are actually low-margin contract manufacturing work at 15-20% gross margins, which will crush overall profitability
• Multiple C-suite executives have resigned and sold massive amounts of stock, including the former Chief Accounting Officer selling 85% of his shares days before resigning
• Jehoshaphat predicts greater than 30% downside to consensus earnings estimates and suggests a possible revenue restatement at year-end audit