Weekly Wrap-Up: Sunday, 08/03/2025

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Activ8 News Team
August 03, 2025

This week delivered a masterclass in activist short selling dynamics, from surgical precision to spectacular collapses. The Bear Cave's manipulation alert on Pheton Holdings produced a wild 97% crash that's definitely in the running for Short of the Month honors, while Snowcap's technical report of FTAI Infrastructure highlighted chronic management failures across nearly a decade. Bleecker Street's competitive analysis of United Therapeutics demonstrated how monopolistic positions inevitably face erosion, even in specialized pharmaceutical markets. The week underscored three critical themes: the vulnerability of thinly-traded overseas listings to manipulation schemes, the power of documented track records in infrastructure investing, and the relentless march of competition in high-value therapeutic franchises.

Snowcap Research Report on FTAI Infrastructure 7/30/2025

Market Impact

FTAI Infrastructure showed minimal immediate reaction to Snowcap's comprehensive short report, with the stock closing at $6.36 on the day of release compared to $6.26 the day prior. By week's end, shares had retreated slightly to $6.33, suggesting the market may be digesting the detailed allegations of chronic underperformance and potential liquidity concerns.

Who is FTAI Infrastructure?

FTAI Infrastructure is a publicly traded infrastructure company spun out from FTAI Aviation in 2022, owning and operating a portfolio including the Transtar railroad network, Jefferson crude oil terminal in Texas, Repauno natural gas liquids terminal in New Jersey, and Long Ridge power plant in Ohio. The company is externally managed by Fortress Investment Group and generates approximately $198 million in quarterly annualized EBITDA, though this falls significantly short of its substantial debt and preferred equity obligations.

Key Points from the Report

  • Perfect Miss Rate: Management has missed all 94 EBITDA and KPI projections since 2016, with Jefferson terminal promising $100M EBITDA since 2019 but never achieving even half that target

  • Contract Revenue Discrepancies: Despite claiming $25M in new Jefferson contracts, actual EBITDA increased only $15M, with Texas filings showing pricing 30% below management assumptions

  • Customer Concentration Risk: Transtar derives 93% of revenue from US Steel despite CEO claims of diversification, with minimum volume commitments expiring in 2026

  • Abandoned Partnerships: Data center development partner DP Facilities quietly removed Long Ridge marketing materials, with FIP scrubbing related press releases from its website

  • Questionable Fortress Investments: $40M invested in seemingly unrelated assets including loss-making road repair business and vacant Beaumont land that appears to benefit Fortress affiliates

The Bear Cave Report on Pheton Holdings Ltd 7/29/2025

Market Impact

Pheton Holdings experienced a catastrophic collapse following The Bear Cave's manipulation alert, plummeting from $30.96 to close at $1.65 on the day of the report, a 95% decline. The stock continued falling through week's end to $0.81, representing a 97% drop from pre-report levels and confirming the research firm's warnings about the manipulation scheme.

Who is Pheton Holdings?

Pheton Holdings is a U.S.-listed Chinese company trading on NASDAQ with what was previously a $441 million market cap. Like many tightly held Chinese companies on U.S. exchanges, PTHL became vulnerable to overseas stock manipulation schemes that target these entities due to their limited float and susceptibility to artificial price movements.

Key Points from the Report

  • Fake Acquisition Rumors: Overseas manipulation groups spread false claims about a Gilead Sciences acquisition scheduled for August 6, 2025

  • Historical Pattern: Similar manipulation schemes caused Ostin Technology (OST) to crash ~94%, China Liberal Education Holdings (CLEU) to fall ~98%, and Jayud Global Logistics (JYD) to drop ~95%

  • Imminent Collapse Warning: The Bear Cave predicted PTHL faced immediate stock collapse following the established pattern of other manipulated Chinese-listed companies

  • Manipulation Vulnerability: Company's tight float and limited institutional coverage made it an ideal target for coordinated manipulation schemes

  • Overseas Operations: The manipulation alert specifically highlighted the involvement of overseas groups in spreading the false acquisition narrative

Bleecker Street Research Report on United Therapeutics 7/29/2025

Market Impact

United Therapeutics showed resilience to Bleecker Street's competitive threat analysis, declining modestly from $298.14 to $297.56 on the day of publication. The stock finished the week at $294.28, a relatively contained 1.3% decline that suggests the market may not yet fully appreciate the competitive pressures outlined in the detailed report.

Who is United Therapeutics?

United Therapeutics is a $13 billion pharmaceutical company that focuses primarily on treatments for pulmonary arterial hypertension, with its flagship product Tyvaso representing the majority of total revenue. Tyvaso, an inhaled form of treprostinil first approved in 2009, expanded its market in 2021 by receiving approval for pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease (PH-ILD), effectively granting the company a monopoly in this indication until recently.

Key Points from the Report

  • Monopoly Broken: After five years of litigation, Liquidia's competing product Yutrepia received FDA approval in May 2025, marking the first direct competition since Tyvaso's 2009 launch

  • Rapid Market Penetration: Yutrepia captured an estimated 5% market share within just two months of launch, with physicians indicating 50/50 long-term market share expectations

  • Superior Medical Profile: Yutrepia's smaller particle technology improves tolerability and enables higher dosing without the discontinuation rates seen with Tyvaso

  • Revenue Erosion Projections: Bleecker Street estimates 11% Tyvaso sales decline by 2026 in base case, with bear case scenario showing 28% revenue decline and 37% earnings drop

  • Pipeline Competition: Multiple next-generation competitors including Insmed's once-daily TPIP and Liquidia's twice-daily L606 threaten to further erode UTHR's market position with superior convenience profiles

Activ8 Analysis: Milton's Narrative Warfare: Our deep dive into Trevor Milton's Tucker Carlson interview examines how the pardoned Nikola founder weaponizes victimhood and reframes fraud conviction as conspiracy, contrasting his theatrical performance with Anderson's methodical fact-checking response.

  • Indian regulators struggle to distinguish legitimate short-selling from market manipulation, as highlighted by Jane Street's pump-and-dump scheme that used aggressive morning buying to create false bullish signals for retail traders, then profited 10-20x on short derivatives while dumping stocks—demonstrating how sophisticated foreign entities can exploit regulatory gaps to manipulate entire market indices at the expense of millions of small investors.

  • Martin Shkreli Targets aTyr Pharma: The controversial "Pharma Bro" Martin Shkreli revealed a short position against biotech aTyr Pharma (ATYR), predicting an 80% crash within six weeks based on claims that the company's lead drug efzofitimod is ineffective for treating systemic sclerosis-related lung disease.

    • Activ8 is developing tracking methods to monitor Shkreli's performance in the short selling space following his entry into public activist positions

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